Pair #7459

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-HMAT

The Masters: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10441

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: Matsuyama winning a major in 2026 does not require him to win The Masters specifically — he could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship. And making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.29% BELOW HURDLE

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