Pair #7458

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180114

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 does not require leading after round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 2.61% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9850
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -1.67% BELOW HURDLE

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