Pair #7457

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-HMAT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2499

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors at the Masters does not guarantee Matsuyama is the top APAC golfer (another APAC golfer could finish higher). Being top APAC finisher does not guarantee top-10 finishes in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.19% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -26.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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