Pair #7455

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-HMAT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2499

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180114

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after round 1 of the Masters. Leading after round 1 of the Masters does not guarantee top-10 finishes in all 4 majors. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0150
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -13.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue