Pair #7454

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4591651

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: If Matsuyama wins the Masters (lowest total strokes overall), he must have the lowest total strokes among Asian/Oceanic golfers as a subset. He completes the full tournament as winner, so the APAC category market must resolve Yes. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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