Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z
Reasoning: A round-1 top-20 finish does not determine the full tournament result for top US finisher, and being top US finisher does not imply a top-20 round-1 finish. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.5500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A