Pair #7450

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: A top-10 round-1 finish is a single-round stat and does not determine the overall tournament outcome for top US finisher. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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