Pair #745

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1989

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:16Z

Reasoning: Event A is about finishing top 10 in all 4 golf majors; Event B is about finishing top 10 in round 1 of the Valspar Championship (not a major). These are completely independent events with no logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -72.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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