Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008
YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z
Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 in Round 1, he is necessarily also in the top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A