Pair #7447

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:12Z

Reasoning: Making the cut requires performing well over rounds 1 and 2, but does not necessitate a top-20 finish in round 1 specifically. And finishing top 20 in round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could miss cut after round 2). No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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