Pair #7446

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Making the cut (based on 36-hole total after R1+R2) does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 alone. Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could have a bad R2). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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