Pair #7444

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1087532

YES ask: 0.0690
NO ask: 0.9380
Last: 0.0690

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: If Scheffler leads after Round 1, he is in 1st place, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6080
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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