Pair #7442

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1087532

YES ask: 0.0690
NO ask: 0.9380
Last: 0.0690

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could lead R1 but play poorly in R2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1190
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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