Pair #7440

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 necessarily means finishing top 20 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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