Pair #7439

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 necessarily means finishing top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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