Pair #7438

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2, and a poor Round 2 could still miss the cut). Making the cut does not imply top 5 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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