Pair #7437

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1087532

YES ask: 0.0690
NO ask: 0.9380
Last: 0.0690

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 implies top 5 in Round 1 (the leader is #1, which is within top 5). However, finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply leading (could be 2nd-5th). And leading does imply top 5, so there is an implication one way. Wait — re-evaluating: if Scheffler leads R1, he is #1, which is top 5. So KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH → KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH is TRUE. But the reverse is not.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2280
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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