Pair #7436

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not necessitate being the top US golfer (another US golfer could finish higher). Being the top US golfer does not necessitate a top 5 finish (the best US golfer could finish 10th, for example). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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