Pair #7435

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180

YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in the overall tournament does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1 (could have a bad first round and recover). Finishing top 20 in Round 1 does not imply finishing top 5 overall. These measure different scopes (full tournament vs. single round) with no logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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