Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008
YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 461303
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.5500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:17Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A