Pair #7431

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not guarantee being the top US golfer, and being the top US golfer does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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