Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH
Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606
YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:17Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1, and finishing top 20 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A