Pair #743

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:54Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all four majors does not require winning any of them, so it does not imply a major win. Conversely, winning a major implies a top-10 finish in that major but not necessarily top 10 in all four majors. Neither strictly implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -36.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -40.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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