Pair #7428

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 257606

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 in the full tournament, he must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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