Pair #7423

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:05:17Z

Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 20 in the full tournament, he must have made the cut — you cannot finish in the overall top 20 without surviving the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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