Pair #7422

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the overall Masters tournament does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1, and finishing top 5 in Round 1 doesn't guarantee a top 20 finish overall. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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