Pair #7421

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Scheffler could win a different major without being the top US golfer at the Masters. And being the top US finisher at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 19.79% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +15.51% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue