Pair #7418

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Scheffler could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without playing in or making the cut at the Masters. And making the cut at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No necessary implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue