Pair #7416

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 59321

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall in the Masters does not guarantee being the top US golfer (another US golfer could finish higher). And being the top US golfer does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall (e.g., all US golfers could finish outside top 10). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 98.72% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +94.51% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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