Pair #7414

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall Masters tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall. These are independent.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -73.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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