Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655
YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 31577
YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z
Reasoning: If Scheffler finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he must have completed enough rounds to achieve that finish, which requires making the cut. You cannot finish top 10 in the tournament without making the cut.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-96.97%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.7100
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-101.18%
BELOW HURDLE