Pair #7412

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 39655

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4552

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (overall tournament) does not imply finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters, and vice versa. Round 1 standings are independent of final tournament standings.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue