Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-SSCH
The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 14180
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.6300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26409687
YES ask: 0.0820
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0820
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters does not logically require finishing top 20 in Round 1 — historically players have won from outside the top 20 after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.5220
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A