Pair #7409

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-SSCH

The Masters: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36008

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 26409687

YES ask: 0.0820
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0820

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically. A player can win overall with a mediocre first round. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6620
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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