Pair #7406

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46937

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TYH

The Masters: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22393

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not guarantee being the top LIV golfer (another LIV golfer could finish higher), and being the top LIV golfer does not require a top 5 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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