Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46937
YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 148939
YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0110
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee being the top LIV golfer overall, and being the top LIV golfer overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.0810
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A