Pair #7403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46937

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 148939

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0110

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee being the top LIV golfer overall, and being the top LIV golfer overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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