Pair #7402

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 148939

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0110

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TYH

The Masters: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22393

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and finishing top 5 does not require having led after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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