Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNBAWEST-26-DEN
Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship?
Series: KXNBAWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1310279
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-DEN
What will be LeBron James's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17875
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If LeBron James's next team is Denver before Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:32Z
Reasoning: LeBron joining Denver does not guarantee they win the Western Conference, and Denver winning the West does not require LeBron to be on the team. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
64.32%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9600
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
+60.10%
PROFITABLE