Pair #74

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBAWEST-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship?

Series: KXNBAWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1310279

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver wins the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-DEN

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17875

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If LeBron James's next team is Denver before Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: LeBron joining Denver does not guarantee they win the Western Conference, and Denver winning the West does not require LeBron to be on the team. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 64.32% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +60.10% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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