Pair #7391

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46937

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:14Z

Reasoning: Hatton could win a major other than The Masters without being top LIV golfer at The Masters. Being top LIV golfer at The Masters does not mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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