Pair #739

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3657

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 699210

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:54Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.84% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -2.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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