Pair #7388

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 148939

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0110

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:14Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading Round 1 at The Masters (could win a different major, or win The Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9810
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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