Pair #7387

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-TYH

The Masters: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 39539

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:04:14Z

Reasoning: Hatton winning a major in 2026 does not require him to finish top 20 at The Masters specifically — he could win a different major. And finishing top 20 at The Masters does not mean he wins any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -52.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -57.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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