Pair #7386

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5494

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-TYH

The Masters: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 34433

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:53Z

Reasoning: Hatton could win a different major (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open) without finishing top 10 at the Masters. Finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -25.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -30.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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