Pair #7385

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4807562

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46937

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

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Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:53Z

Reasoning: If Hatton wins the Masters, he has the lowest score among all participants, so he necessarily has the lowest score among the subset of LIV golfers — assuming he is himself a LIV golfer and that other LIV golfers complete the full tournament. The confidence is medium rather than high because it depends on Hatton being classified as a LIV golfer and on at least one other LIV golfer completing the tournament (otherwise the market resolution may be undefined). The reverse does not hold — being top LIV golfer does not mean winning the overall tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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