Pair #7378

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-BEG

The Masters: Will Ben Griffin finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 8423

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could mean winning the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship — not necessarily the Masters, so a top-5 at the Masters is not required. Finishing top 5 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -8.02% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -12.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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