Pair #7377

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 34249

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading Round 1 of the Masters (he could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.70% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9790
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.58% BELOW HURDLE

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