Pair #7374

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-PREE

Will Patrick Reed finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 53237

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-PREE

The Masters: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4299

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing as the top US golfer overall, and finishing as the top US golfer overall does not require having finished top 10 in Round 1. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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