Pair #7371

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-PREE

Will Patrick Reed finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 53237

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 549162

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9730
Last: 0.0280

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing as the top US golfer overall (could fade), and finishing as top US golfer overall does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0220
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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