Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-PREE
Will Patrick Reed finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 53237
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Reed records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-PREE
Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 549162
YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9730
Last: 0.0280
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing as the top US golfer overall (could fade), and finishing as top US golfer overall does not require having led after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0220
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A