Pair #7370

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-PREE

Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 549162

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9730
Last: 0.0280

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-PREE

The Masters: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4299

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: If Patrick Reed is the leader after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 10 after Round 1 (the leader is 1st). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not require being the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2430
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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