Pair #7368

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26USA-PREE

Will Patrick Reed finish as the top United States golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 53237

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed records the lowest total strokes among all United States golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-PREE

Masters Tournament: Will Patrick Reed finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 250581

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:03:33Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not necessitate being the top US golfer (another US golfer could finish higher), and being the top US golfer does not necessitate a top 5 finish overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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